Biden must respond strongly but proportionally to any escalatory action Putin tries. For Putin, carving out as much of Ukraine as possible as a buffer as cheaply as possible makes sense.īut while Putin might not want to pay the high price of a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the situation in Eastern Europe could still spiral out of control. While the Russian president loves to say Ukraine and Russia are one nation, it is through the flatlands of Ukraine that Russia has suffered invasion after invasion, with millions of Russians dead from the Napoleonic era to the days of Adolf Hitler. Russian President Vladimir Putin has already deployed his troops into allied separatist regions. Putin appearing to be returning Russia to the glory days of the Soviet Union is the shot in the arm he thinks his nation needs. Its life expectancy is poor compared with that of Western nations, with alcoholism and drug abuse reaching dangerous levels.Īnd Russia is looking more like China’s junior partner by the day. While Moscow is blessed with trillions of dollars in natural resources and a rebuilt military that can kill billions with the flick of a switch, its demographic trends point to a nation in descent. So why is Putin doing even this? Russia, in many respects, is truly a lost great power in the throes of a long decline that shows no sign of slowing down, and a self-created crisis over Ukraine distracts the average Russian from clear problems that have no easy solutions. Expect him to keep dialing up pressure to see what he can get away with for as little cost as possible. EPA/ETIENNE LAURENTĪnd while Russia will surely press for additional pieces of territory in Ukraine in the days ahead, Putin understands the limits of his capabilities and the dangers of pushing too far. President Joe Biden must revamp America’s oil infrastructure on top of sanctioning Russian banks. Putin sent Russian troops into the separatist Donbas region, stating that Ukraine doesn’t deserve to exist.

Russia has massed 190,000 troops along the Ukrainian border, increasing dramatically the pressure on Kyiv, scaring off international investments and creating a siege mentality. So far, his actions have well served his goals. To put it simply, Putin wants to damage Ukraine, not destroy and conquer it. His goals have never been in doubt: to get Ukraine to declare it will never join NATO while ensuring Kyiv’s economy and military are weakened to such an extent the West will have no choice but to abandon it. His slow rollout of a maximum-pressure strategy was carefully calibrated to dial up the pressure in Ukraine, NATO and the Western democracies. Take stock of what the Russian strongman has already accomplished. And President Joe Biden must recognize that and act accordingly - which means having a long-term strategy to suffocate the strongman, not merely doing short-term damage control. The price of trying to swallow Ukraine whole is death by geopolitical asphyxiation.īut Putin is no fool. The ensuing outrage, massive sanctions and a costly counterinsurgency could mean the end of his rule. If Moscow made a full-out ground assault and annexed Ukraine in its entirety, Putin would be opening a Pandora’s box he’d never be able to close. Russians lining up to snag H&M clothes, IKEA furniture as stores close over Ukraine warĮxplosions rock Russian airfield in Crimea after apparent Ukrainian strikeĭespite the constant media drumbeat to what seems like an inevitable war, Russian President Vladimir Putin understands one thing: He can’t make Russia great again by launching a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

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